Insights

Japan’s Bond Market Psychodrama

(Feb 26) Peter considers the January 20th “crash” in Japanese government bonds.

Peter Tasker 3rd February 2026
  • Japanese government bond yields have risen sharply recently
  • The “crash” of January 20th took place on very low traded volumes
  • Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s challenge is to raise interest rates to European levels
  • Japan may well be tightening when other central banks are loosening economic policy
  • The dollar has risen by 55% against the yen since 2020, moving well away from Purchasing Power Parity
  • A Plaza Accord-like shock could happen again
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Further reading

Five Fitting Scenarios for the Year of the (Fire) Horse

(Jan 26) Peter’s five key predictions for Japan in 2026, the year of the Fire Horse.

Japan’s First Female Prime Minister: Neither Liz Truss nor Margaret Thatcher

(Oct 25) Peter explains why comparing new Prime Minister Takaichi with former British PMs Thatcher and Truss is ill advised.

How Japan Got Its Mojo Back

(Sep 25) Peter provides a retrospective of Japan’s economic and stock market woes over the past 35 years.