Turning Japanese

Peter considers further the Coronavirus crisis, its after-effects and how they will differ from Japan’s experiences at the end of the last century despite looking similar at present.

Summary

  • The Covid-19 crisis is short-term deflationary, but the policy reaction will breed inflation
  • Policy-makers are engaging in a form of Modern Monetary Theory
  • For most countries, “turning Japanese” is a phase not a destination
  • Shocks of historical magnitude change stock market leadership
  • Inflation and yield curve steepening will make winners out of losers and losers out of winners
  • Deflation-dogged Japan would benefit greatly from a turn in the cycle

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